AI Predicts the Wild Future of Backpacking & Thru-Hiking

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So, this week, I decided to ask Chat GPT to predict the future of backpacking and thru-hiking. Why would I do this? Great question.

A Changing Industry

In the last couple of decades alone, the world of backpacking has changed dramatically.

The gear looks different, the people look different, the access to resources, the technology… and this is due to a variety of factors. For one, social media has exposed countless people to the world of backpacking and thru- hiking. Where in decades past, you had nothing but online forums and magazines and books and word of mouth to find trails and to navigate them by, now you can simply Google “backpacking trails near me” and you will get 100,000 hyper-localized results.

You can go to Instagram or TikTok and you will find outdoor influencers who are telling you about their favorite trails, their favorite gear, how to’s, tips and tricks, everything that you need to know. You can download maps on AllTrails or Gaia or FarOut or OnX or GoatMaps or any of the countless hiking apps, and you can download those maps for offline use, and then you can use GPS technology to track where you are on trail. You can record your hike via a GoPro or a DJI Osmo or an Action or your cell phone, and then you can edit that video on your phone, and then you can publish it to the internet and share it with countless people all over the world. In fact, there are hikers making full time livings off of just hiking and sharing their content online, and that’s just not something that you saw 20 years ago.

And just to be clear, I am not saying that this is a bad thing, I think it is awesome that the world of backpacking and thru-hiking is more accessible than ever. The wealth of information and the ability to share that information online has fostered the next generation of backpackers and thru-hikers and nature lovers, conservationists, trail builders, maintainers, volunteers and beyond. I am not here to gatekeep backpacking in any capacity.

Now are there downsides? Obviously. I don’t think that anybody would argue that this boom of interest hasn’t come with its fair share of negative side effects. The overcrowding on the trails, the environmental impact of thousands of people hiking through fragile ecosystems, the habituation of wildlife, the overconsumption of gear and apparel, single-use plastics, all of that… but I’m getting off topic.

Ultimately, what I’m saying is backpacking and thru-hiking has changed drastically in just the last couple of decades, thanks to the boom in exposure and the developments in technology. And speaking of technology, one of the biggest developments in just the last couple of years that has the potential to absolutely rock the world of backpacking and thru-hiking is AI. And so out of morbid curiosity, I just went ahead and asked our future robot overlords what they thought that the future of backpacking and thru-hiking might look like.

So here is what I asked.

“Give me five predictions about the future of backpacking and thru-hiking in the next 20 years. Here are some things to consider:

How will AI play into the equation? What sort of gear will folks be carrying? Will there be more hikers or less? What technology will hikers use?”

And here’s what it said.

Prediction Number 1:

So imagine this: you’re hiking the Appalachian Trail, you’re approaching the infamous White Mountains, and you have no idea what’s in store for you. So instead of pulling out your phone and looking up information and Googling things, whatever, you just go ahead and pull out your handy dandy AI assistant.

You can ask it things like:

• “Hey, what does the weather look like every night for the next few nights if I’m walking an average of 15 miles a day?”
• “If I only want to carry three days of food at a time, how much do I need to be hiking and where are my resupply points?”
• “Where are my bailout points in this section? Please list out three shuttle options and then call them to arrange transportation.”
• “What are the top hostels in the area? Please call the cheapest one and book me a bunk for tomorrow night.”

And then alternately, maybe your AI assistant may say things like:

• “Hey, heads up, in the next 10 miles, there is an unusual amount of reported blowdowns. So be careful.”
• “You’re averaging a liter of water for every five miles right now and you have a 10 mile dry stretch coming up. We recommend that this next water source you drink a liter of water and then you carry two liters of water with you.”
• “Alert, there is reported norovirus cases in this area. We recommend that you stay away from shelters and instead you camp at mile marker 1620 because there is a reliable water source there and great stealth spots.

 You could potentially tell your hiking companion to use GPS coordinates to alert you of hazards, or tell you when you’re off trail, or it can let you know when a water source is coming up. You could set alerts for reported trail closures or dangerous water crossings or wildfires or dangerous inclement weather, any of those things. And then you can have it recommend to you alternate trail routes.

So many of the things that I’ve listed are already actually possible through AI like ChatGPT and Gemini (and whether they are accurate or not is a totally different question.)

But if someone were to make some sort of trail specific AI that was designed to be an expert on whatever given trail that you were hiking at that moment, and was using information from sources like Far Out or The Trek to inform its decisions, well, you may have just created a super powered trail expert that you keep in your pocket that can give you all the best advice in real time! And of course, that is not a thing that is actually real and it does not exist right now… but it definitely could be a thing in 10 to 20 years.

My Thoughts

Now, would something like an AI companion take the fun and the challenge out of thru-hiking? I would probably say yes, but that’s just right now. I mean, who knows what I’m going to feel in 10 to 20 years? I’m sure there are folks that hiked the AT 20 years ago that used paper and maps that never would have used Far Out, or could have imagined using Far Out, and would vehemently argue against it. But when I hiked last year, the standard was basically everybody I was hiking around was using Far Out. So I think that people’s opinions on things change, and who’s to say what the new standard will be?

But again, this is all just speculation. This is not a thing that really exists… but it might in 10 to 20 years!

Prediction Number 2:

Now I have a few thoughts on this prediction.

Obviously, backpacking gear is going to continue to develop and change. It’ll get lighter. It’ll get smaller. That is just the trend that backpacking gear has been following for years.

But do I think that backpacking gear will be smart enough to heat you up when you’re cold, or cool you down when you’re hot? Maybe? I mean, I know that heated jackets already exist. I have a friend who has one and he loves to brag about it. And I knew that cooling jackets exist. Here’s an example of one I found on Amazon. 

 

 

My Thoughts

But the question isn’t “will it exist?” The question is, “will it be the new standard?”

And I don’t think so.

I mean, not in its current form. I mean, I think these designs are really, really bulky and probably really heavy. So I think if these current iterations were the standard 10 to 20 years from now, no, I do not think that that would be the standard in backpacking.

But… if in the future, you have an ultralight puffy down jacket that is heated, and it can keep you warm down to 10 degrees, and it doubles as a sleep system… I mean, who’s to say? I could definitely see THAT being widely used. But obviously that does not exist, and I cannot predict the future of backpacking apparel. So who’s to say?

Now as for a shift to eco materials… I think that lighter, more durable gear is always going to win out.

So if brands are able to thread that needle of hyper-durable and hyper-light and also eco-friendly, then I think we will see that shift. But again, who’s to say?

Prediction Number 3:

So, I do believe that this prediction is possible… As I mentioned, it does feel like we’ve seen a boost in interest in backpacking and thru-hiking in the last few years…

That being said, there has been a evident DECREASE in interest in backpacking and thru-hiking in the last few years, with it seemingly have hit a peak sometime between 2010 and 2020.

Google Trends: Interest in “Backpacking (Hiking)”, 2004-present

Google Trends: Interest in “Thru-hiking”, 2004-present

Plus in 2025, the ATC saw more than a 30% drop in thru-hiker registrations.* 

Though it is important to note that in 2024, Hurricane Helene had had a pretty devastating effect on the trail, and it’s likely that many of the people that had been planning to hike this year probably pushed off their hikes just to let the trail heal. But the PCT also saw a drop in hiker registrations, over a thousand from 2022 to 2024.** 

Now, who’s to say exactly why there’s been a downturn in interest for thru-hiking, whether it is a post-pandemic return to normalcy or a sign of economic downturn or fatigue? It’s really hard to point to any one reason. We also can’t say whether these signals are pointing to a long-term downtrend. Again who’s to say.

Also, the question of whether we will see public resources being pumped into improving public lands and building infrastructure… I think you can probably take a look at recent political trends and not feel the most optimistic about that being the future of our trail systems. But who is to say in the long run exactly what will happen to our different national parks and scenic trails?

So I guess we’ll just have to hope for the best and wait to find out.

Prediction Number 4:

This is a pretty easy no for me. The idea of seeing hikers walking around with augmented reality glasses while they’re hiking on trail seems pretty dystopian to me. So, you will not see me wearing AR glasses while I’m hiking, but again who’s to say this… definitely could be the standard for our future thru-hikers.

Prediction Number 5:

Now, I don’t think that this one is so much of a prediction as it is a statement of current reality.

I think folks have been using backpacking and thru-hiking as a way to get off their phones and get away from their screens, away from their day jobs, and get out there and connect with nature and the environment… People have been doing this for years. So, do I think that this will continue to be the trend? Absolutely. I don’t think that that is much of a stretch by any stretch of the imagination.

Also, do I think that folks will be using the trail as an avenue for hiking and gathering research and information on the areas around the trails? Definitely. I hiked with a geologist who was collecting soil samples as she hiked state to state. So 100% it does happen, and I think we’ll continue to see this be a trend.

So again, I think that this is all already true and not really much of a prediction here.

Final Thoughts

So out of all of these predictions, I think it’s likely that the AI assistant is the most realistic one.

I feel like we’re already seeing AI sort of heading in this direction already. And I don’t think that it is much of a stretch to think that in the future, the AT could have an official AT AI companion that you can pay for on some sort of subscription model that can give you real time feedback about the trail, and where you are, and the weather conditions and the terrain, all of those things. I don’t think that that is much of a stretch of the imagination at all. I just don’t think that we’re quite there yet.

I wouldn’t be surprised if this year’s class of hikers already asked Chat GPT to help them cut ounces on their pack, or to tell them the best way to get to trail, or to recommend them how much food to carry for the first stretch of trail. I wouldn’t be surprised if we already saw this year’s class of hikers doing that. And I definitely think that next year’s class of hikers will likely lean into it even more.

But the question of whether hikers SHOULD be using AI when they’re thru-hiking or backpacking… ultimately, I leave that answer up to you. But I do think that the negative environmental impact of services like ChatGPT or Gemini are going to become a large part of the conversation as we continue to see the outdoor industry rely more and more heavily on this kind of technology. I really feel like we haven’t even seen the tip of the spear for this kind of technology for the worlds of thru-hiking and backpacking yet.

To learn more about the negative environmental impacts of AI services, read Explained: Generative AI’s environmental impact.

So yeah, that is what Chat GPT thinks that the future of backpacking and thru-hiking is going to look like. Do you agree? Do you disagree? Would you bring your own little AI hiking companion with you into the backcountry? Or do you think that it’s all going too far? Or are you excited to see how AI is going to change the world of backpacking and thru-hiking? Let me know your thoughts below.

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*Source: Appalachian Trail Sees 30% Decrease in Thru-Hiker Registrations for 2025

**Source: Appalachian Trail Sees 30% Decrease in Thru-Hiker Registrations for 2025