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Are Fewer People Hiking the AT This Year?
Tumbling Run is one of the most memorable shelters on the Appalachian Trail. The unique southern Pennsylvania shelter offers separate structures for snorers and non-snorers — so Harv “Bachelor” Howard distinctly remembers staying there in May 2018. At the time, both shelters were packed wall-to-wall with snoozing hikers, and even more were tenting nearby. Contrast that with May 2024, when Bachelor spent another night at Tumbling Run. This time, only two hikers between the two shelters, plus four tents.
Having successfully thru-hiked the AT in 2018, Bachelor set out from Springer for a second thru-hike attempt this year in late February — about two weeks later than his 2018 start date. Initially, he was worried about starting so close to March 1st, which he describes as “Black Friday” on the AT because of the crowds of thru-hiker hopefuls starting around then. But he was stunned by how quiet the trail seemed, even from Day 1.
Southern Pennsylvania’s Tumbling Run shelters
“I was just amazed,” Bachelor tells The Trek. “In 2018, by April every shelter was jammed and people were having to tent because there was no more room. This year in April, shelters had two or three people max.” Up and down the trail, everyone he met was talking about it. Where are all the thru-hikers?
A Walk in the Woods
The AT is probably the most famous long trail in America and definitely the most heavily used. Its popularity seems to constantly grow, especially in the nine years since A Walk in the Woods, the Hollywood adaptation of Bill Bryson’s famous memoir, launched the white blazes into mainstream awareness.
The Appalachian Trail Conservancy (ATC) estimates that over 3,000 people attempt to thru-hike the AT every year. More people getting outside is a good thing, but all that foot traffic has a dark side. Overcrowding leads to erosion, degradation of trailside ecosystems, overflowing privies, and jam-packed campsites — not exactly the wilderness experience most people envision when they decide to take their own proverbial walk in the woods.
The ATC runs a voluntary thru-hiker registration program to track and manage foot traffic on the crowded trail. Hikers can register their planned start date and see how many others have signed up for the same day. The organization encourages hikers to avoid starting on days when 50 or more others have also registered, an attempt to get hikers to spread out their starts.
Registrations Up, On the Ground Counts Not So Much
The AT might seem quiet, but more prospective thru-hikers registered on ATCamp this year than last: 2,497 were due to start from Amicalola Falls or Springer Mountain, the second-highest number ever after 2022’s 2,545 registered starts.
Thirty-three hikers were registered to start on February 25th, the day Bachelor began his hike this year. Seventy-eight were due to start just a few days later on March 1st, and almost every subsequent day in the month of March was at or above the voluntary 50-person capacity limit.
Where did all those people go? How is it that the trail feels so quiet when more people signed up to hike northbound than in almost any past year?
ATCamp registrations only tell part of the story. Sign-up is voluntary, and just because someone registers a hike on a whim doesn’t mean they’re obligated to start the trail at the place and time they said they would (if they start at all).”Each year we’re seeing more evidence that ATCamp registrations don’t equal starts, and we use on-the-ground counts for a more accurate picture of how many thru-hikers are on the Trail,” says ATC Communications Director Ann Simonelli.
“From what we’ve seen, our ATCamp data and the Amicalola Falls State Park (AFSP) data do not agree well this year. AFSP saw about 500 fewer thru-hikers this year than last year.” The discrepancy is stark: Simonelli says that Amicalola saw more than 1000 fewer visitors this year than expected based on the number of ATCamp users who registered to start there.
Trail Days Attendance This Year vs. Last Year
“Attendance at Trail Days this year seemed noticeably lower than in previous years,” Zach tells me. “Foot traffic through the retailer booths was definitely slower, and while it’s hard to determine how much of that was due to the rainy weather versus overall lower attendance, the energy certainly felt a tad sluggish compared to recent years.”
Anecdotally, Damascus Recreation Director Julie Kroll says the Class of 2024 might have been smaller than normal. “The class of 2024 did appear to be smaller than the class of 2023 in the Trail Days hiker parade, both in comparison this year to 2023 returners and vs. last year with 2023 as the current class. However, it’s hard to know for sure because the class of 2024 didn’t have a sign in this year’s parade.”
Class of 2023 in the 2023 Trail Days parade (left, from the white Class of 2023 sign back), compared to Class of 2024 in the 2024 parade (right, estimated to be from the person circled in red back)
But Why Though?
There could be any number of reasons why fewer people appear to be thru-hiking this year.
“There is a correlation between the number of thru-hikers and the unemployment rate,” speculates Potomac Appalachian Trail Club president Jim Fetig. “Based on personal observations, I’d say that seems about right.”
Intuitively, it does make sense that more unemployment would translate to more hikers attempting the full AT — finding six months off to just walk is hard to pull off when employed, after all. US unemployment rates are up somewhat over last year (4.1 percent in June 2024 compared to 3.6 percent in June 2023), but have fallen dramatically over the last few years from their historic high of 14.9 percent in April 2020.
Could this year’s quieter numbers be a delayed reaction to our society’s return to relative normalcy post-Covid pandemic? Outdoor recreation exploded during the pandemic and in the years after. Traffic on the AT was down in 2020, what with many prospective hikers canceling their trips and the ATC not recognizing 2020 thru-hikes, but the trail was busier than ever in subsequent years.
An overcrowded tentsite on the AT in 2016. Clarity photo
Part of the 2021/2022 surge in foot traffic is likely from 2020 “NoGos” rescheduling their hikes. Lingering Covid anxiety could also have helped drive growth: some people may still have looked to the AT as a safer alternative to whatever else they’d have liked to do as recently as 2022 and 2023. Mask mandates and travel restrictions were still a thing well into 2022, and the second US public health emergency didn’t officially end until March of 2023.
In 2024, the pandemic feels more remote, with more and more people resuming normal (non-thru-hiking) activities. (Source: I’m just making stuff up at this point, but it kind of makes sense right?)
At the end of the day, one year of (apparently) reduced traffic on the AT does not a trend make. It could be the start of a pattern, or it could just be a fluke. Let’s wait and see.
I have, sadly not been anywhere remotely near the Appalachian Trail this season, so I’m curious to hear from those of you who have. Has the AT seemed crowded to you this year? Not so much? Let us know in the comments.
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Comments 21
I have been section hiking the AT since 2019, usually getting on trail when the “bubble” reaches VA/MD/PA, my home region. I have not noticed any difference in the number of thru hikers I have met over those years. During my most recent section from the southern end of Shenandoah NP to the Tye River, just north of the Priest in VA, I encountered at least a half dozen NOBO thru hikers every morning for five days, as I headed SOBO. In fact, my first shelter, Blackrock Hut, was over capacity. Late arrivals were searching for any almost flat ground among the trees because the shelter was full and every tent pad already occupied. I had seen so many hikers that each day I wondered if I might find a tent spot at my planned stop for the day. While I always found a spot because I tend to stop early, every day the shelters and tent pads were near capacity. With one strange exception; Paul C. Wolfe shelter – all the tent pads were occupied, there were several hammocks, but only myself and one thru hiker staying in the shelter itself. And there was a large trail family at the shelter.
The “official” number statistics are always troublesome. I think you are on to something with COVID. But not with unemployment; the natural rate of unemployment is around 4%, accounting for people entering the workforce looking for jobs, those changing jobs, and those retiring. Plus, the majority of thru hikers were in the transition categories like new grads/career changers/retirees. Nevertheless, I agree it is more the random or anecdotal factors that will explain what’s going on…
I will say that I have noticed a different “vibe” among thru hikers this year compared to past years. In the past, I found thru hikers to be an upbeat and engaging. This year I would say a significant number – maybe half – seem more aloof to non thru hikers, especially the younger generations. Older thru hikers I met said that they found the younger thru hikers to be “indifferent” and “all about getting down the trail as fast as they can.” Of course, this isn’t really about the numbers of thru hikers on trail. However, it may help explain factors like why the AT Class 2024 appeared smaller at Trail Days.
Regardless, of the statistical or anecdotal factors, this article highlights that something is definitely “different” on the AT this year.
I hike a section every year since 1995. This year I hiked part of the norther Virginia section. There’s few throug hiker this year than any year. This information is coming from hikers hostels who are not getting the abundance of business they’re use to have in years past. One of major reason for lack of hikers is the lack of water sources. Some started and stopped and were scared to try. The heat has been another factor. I hiked the northern Virginia section during July and most hikers will need to carry 2 liters of water from shelter to shelter. Only one place I saw water sources throughout the hike. Many of the water sources are dried up. AtPunch Bowl shelter the water had green slime. Reading farout you need to first filter the slime with a t-shirt and then filter i with your water filter. I moved on and there water aways off The lack of water supply has scared people from hiking and the heat index being in the 3 digits is another factor.
Very interesting article. I hiked Georgia to the NC line three weeks ago and it was so quiet on trail! I’ve only put in about 400 miles so far, but usually there are other hikers regardless of the time of year. I’d go a day or more without seeing anyone, and the only one at camp, and I wondered if that was normal for Georgia in June or maybe the heat was keeping people off trail. I don’t know.
Hi
What about stats from the ATC in Harpers Ferry and any issued by Baxter. Anyone who starts at Springer definitely wants that picture at Harpers Ferry and we all know Baxter issues thru hiker passes……. Both those two would add to the conversation
For what it’s worth, in 23 I was 1540 at Springer, 393 at Harpers and 372 at Baxter..
My anecdotal experience with day hikes and weekend trips definitely line up with the theory that the pandemic-fueled explosion in interest in the outdoors has significantly waned. I remember heading out to George Washington National Forest for an overnight in early March 2021. The primitive campground I stayed at was packed, and I saw a few dozen backpackers getting on the trail Friday afternoon to find a spot to camp that night. I got on trail early the next morning, and I saw tents nearly everywhere you could put a tent. It was still winter, but it felt like people were itching to get outdoors after that first COVID winter. Fast forward to last month, I went back to the same mountain. I had a particular summit campsite in mind, and I busted my ass to get there worrying that someone else might take it. The weather was perfect, so I assumed campsites would fill up. Nope. I only saw two day hikers and no one camping. The next day I ran into one couple that had camped the night before, but that was it.
My hostel is right on the Pennsylvania/ Maryland border, and I was overall busier this year. Just one person’s unscientific opinion– the number of flip floppers starting their hike in and around Harpers Ferry, I think, should drastically reset everyone’s calculations of where the bubble is, or even if there is a bubble anymore.
And, with all due respect to the commenters, any opinions about the “vibe” on the trail do not resonate with me. To put an overall mood on 3,000 different hiker stories, spread out over 2, 000 mi, just doesn’t square up with my own observations.
I started the trail northbound on March 1st and came off at three weeks due to a foot injury that was soon followed up on my return home by emergency house repairs that swallowed up my planned hiking money and then followed by a death in my family. It hasn’t been the year I planned on, that’s for sure.
I wish all of the 2024 class still on the trail success. I plan on finishing my local long distance trail the FLT before I even think of any other trail. Were I to do the AT again, I would have planned on a start date later than March 1st
… one can only hope so. In 2021 I hiked from the reflection pond to Uncle Johnny’s. My start date was March 17 and it was CROWDED the whole 48 days. I don’t sleep in shelters, but tent sites were hard to come by and it made for a few miserable moments. Once again, one can only hope so.
My 21 year old son and I completed a Damascus to Harper’s Ferry lash starting Trail Days weekend and all 4 hostels we stayed at throughout the trip were packed. I also found the young crowd of 20 somethings that we were hiking with and around to be quite fun, kind and engaging even though we were section hikers. I really think seeing someone on the trail is all about timing. A shelter that we were at had 4 hikers when we passed through and we talked to a hiker two days later that said he counted almost 20 when he passed it. Talking to the hostel owners, gear shops and town locals dialed into the AT may paint a more accurate picture.
I started my thru hike Feb 29 and had to get off trail in Great Barrington because of a death in the family. There were several stretches between clumps of people, one lasting 3 days in northern Tennessee where I didn’t see a single hiker. Also, I noticed, as several other thru hikers relayed as well, that the female to male ratio was highly skewed compared with previous stats. In years past, I believe it’s been around 60/40 male to female. This year seemed more like 90/10 up until Harper’s Ferry where the flip floppers seemed to balance it out a bit. As far as overall vibe, early on it was very dude heavy “let’s see how many miles I can do in a day” kinda feel. The people I met past Harper’s Ferry were much more chill in general, though I occasionally got the “I can’t be bothered to acknowledge your existence” vibe from the younger generation. Overall, most people I met were very kind, generous and had lots of interesting stories to tell. The Appalachian Trail is full of amazing people making up a very vibrant and healthy community. It was the experience of a lifetime that I’ll not forget. I plan on starting the whole thing over at Springer next spring.
I live a trail town and just a few days ago I was just thinking to myself how it seems quiet in town this year!
Hi, thruhiked in 2016 ,big lashes in 21,22,23.Bout 6000 miles.Way more flippers and way more slackpackers last few years .
My observations as a prior LASHer and current trail angel in the Front Royal area:
1. Absolute numbers are down. The snacks I took out with me this year lasted 4 1/2 days. Last 2 years the same amount of supplies were gone in 3 1/2 days. All three years, I’ve been there around the same time of year.
2. A higher percentage of the hikers I met were “just section hikers” (their words) and didn’t feel the need to register with ATC. Those users aren’t captured in the official stats.
3. A smaller percentage of the thru hikers I met had bothered to register with ATC this year–maybe only 80-85% registered. In conversation, I got some “what would that do for me?” responses, and three people gave me very negative responses, based specifically on the way ATC responded to the pandemic in ’20. You’d think that feeling would have been more pronounced in past years, but I had never had that kind of response in the past. There’s something going on here that ATC doesn’t understand. Me neither.
4. Not sure what it means, but I didn’t talk to a single person who was on a leave of absence from work or had a guaranteed post-hike job. Everyone was postponing looking for a job, had quit a job outright, was retired, or had never worked and did not intend to.
All of my data is anecdotal and conversational, so I wouldn’t make too much of it, but those are the things that stood out to me.
The ATC does not do a good job of tracking Section Hikers who are actually attempting to complete the trail over time. ATCamp’s registration site simply labels anyone spending a few days or weeks on the trail as a “section hiker” vice a thru hiker; so, I can see that many hikers who go out on the trail several times a year see no need to actually register their hike on ATCamp. So, if I go out for three different sections in a year, do I count as “1” or “3” hikers? I don’t know the answer to that… But I do register each time I go out on the trail. I don’t know that I get any particularly useful information by doing that (like allegedly avoiding crowded times or campsites).
My experience is living in a town that sees through hikers is that many don’t have remote work anymore and can’t afford to take off for that amount of time. I get the impression is that there have been fewer numbers in my neck of the woods and there are many different causes. There is likely a long list of lower numbers.
This conversation is about data – or numerical generalizations – and anecdotal generalizations, however they are gleaned, not the unique story of thousands of hikers. Of course, each individual has their own personal reasons for “not registering with ATC” or “not attending Trail Days” or “not staying at shelters or hostels and interacting with other hikers” -or even doing those things when others aren’t not doing the same. But in the aggregate, common ways of thinking can be legitimately labeled “vibe” or “attitudes” or “mindset” – these are just words to describe the way people may think and then correspondingly act or not act. It is not about raw numbers; any particular shelter or hostel or ATC base camp could be very busy for some other reason (like key location, historical reputation, good breakfast, awesome host) These places could be very busy even though overall there may be fewer people on trail. -. Unfortunately, the most telling data set of reasons for why there may be fewer people on trail, is to ask those people who indeed thought about thru hiking or section hiking, but then for whatever reason, chose not to hike. The more telling evidence would be from those who are “not” on the trail than for those actually on the trail.
The covid years messed up the standard count and with a ban made the organization less valid .
for normalizing this year #’s , compare with before covid ..
but , yes , we do not care to register any more cause of the crap they did and still are doing ….
SO Duc
I was one of those campers at Tumbling Run Shelter in May (this year)! That very day, I had been wondering where all the thru-hikers were. I had the “where is everybody?” conversation with Bachelor and one other thru-hiker that day, and I also met the couple that would become my tramily at that shelter. While I did briefly fall into a larger group of thru-hikers shortly after that, the overall fewer thru-hikers on trail this year surprised and disappointed me. I was looking forward to a social hike, but it was much more solitary than I had hoped.
I completed my thru hike on August 27th. During the course of the hike, we felt that prior to VA, there were plenty of hikers around us but once we hit VA, the trail seemed empty and we remarked on it many times. Not sure the reason, we chalked it up to people maybe quitting or what not.
I wonder if having a boom year like 2022 naturally leads to lower numbers in the next few years. Perhaps everyone thinking they might do it in the next 5 years suddenly thinks “this is my chance”, and they do it all at once rather than spreading it out.