These Are the Biggest Reasons Hikers Didn’t Finish the Appalachian Trail Last Year

Every year, thousands of hopefuls set out from Springer Mountain or Katahdin, dreaming of completing a full thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail. 

Yet the sad reality is that a significant number of these journeys end prematurely. Almost 30% of hikers in The Trek’s 2024 Appalachian Trail Thru-Hiker Survey did not complete the trail, while the Appalachian Trail Conservancy estimates that about 75% of all thru-hike attempts are unsuccessful. 

These numbers are intimidating, but understanding why hikers don’t finish the trail is crucial for future hikers. Our survey data sheds light on some of the biggest reasons would-be thru-hikers – excluding planned section hikers – didn’t reach their final terminus last year.

The Top 3 Reasons AT Thru-Hikers Quit

1. Injury and Illness

For those intending to go the full distance, the single largest factor ending thru-hikes in 2024 was injury and illness. The relentless physical demands of hiking day-in and day-out, covering over 2,000 miles of rugged terrain, inevitably take a toll: over half of hikers in our survey reported some sort of injury along the way last year, some of which were hike-ending.

From overuse injuries like tendonitis and stress fractures to acute issues like sprains, hikers’ bodies are put through the wringer. Add in the potential for illnesses spreading through shared shelters or contaminated water sources, and it becomes clear why physical health is paramount.

The dream of Katahdin (or Springer) can die when faced with the harsh reality of a body pushed beyond its limits.

2. Weather

Following closely behind physical ailments was the sheer unpredictability of weather. The 2024 season presented its own unique set of meteorological challenges.

Intense heat waves, particularly in the mid-Atlantic, created dangerous hiking conditions and tested endurance. Later in the season, the remnants of Hurricane Helene swept through parts of the trail, bringing torrential rain, hazardous conditions, and widespread in trail towns and on the AT itself.

Beyond these major events, day-to-day variability – unexpected cold snaps, persistent rain, or prolonged dampness – wore down hikers both physically and mentally, contributing significantly to decisions to leave the trail.

3. Money, Time, and Motivation

While injury and weather were the top two reasons cited by surveyed thru-hikers who stopped short, other perennial challenges also played significant roles.

Running out of money remains a practical barrier for many, as the costs of resupply, gear replacement, medical bills, and town stays accumulate. Similarly, running out of time – often due to a slower-than-anticipated pace, unexpected delays (like injuries or weather), or external deadlines – forced hikers off trail.

These factors, along with the general mental fatigue and potential loss of motivation that can accompany such a long and arduous undertaking, contribute to the trail’s overall attrition rate.

How To Improve Your Odds of Success

While no hiker can eliminate all risks, understanding these common pitfalls allows aspiring thru-hikers to prepare more effectively. Mitigating the primary reasons for leaving the trail often comes down to planning and preparedness.

Combatting Injury

Thorough physical training before hitting the trail is, if not essential, certainly very helpful for improving your odds of success. Focus on building hiking-specific strength and endurance, including carrying a weighted pack.

Start slow on the trail and budget time and money for rest days. Listen to your body and address minor aches before they become major injuries. Consider incorporating injury-prevention exercises and stretching before and during your hike as well.

Weathering the Storms

Invest in appropriate gear for the wide range of conditions you’re likely to encounter on a multi-month thru-hike. Reliable rain gear, layers for warmth, and sun protection are non-negotiable.

If you have the opportunity to do shakedown hikes before starting the trail, don’t shy away from hitting the trail on rainy days (provided you have adequate gear). You’ll learn a lot about yourself and your gear this way, and it’s great practice for the real thing.

All that said, there’s not much you can do about extreme weather events like those faced by 2024 thru-hikers; sometimes getting off trail is the only safe and responsible choice. For that reason, flexibility is also an important part of your preparation: be ready to take zero days during severe weather or alter plans based on conditions. Try to build some extra cushion into your budget and timetable in case of emergencies.

Financial Fortitude

Develop a realistic budget accounting for food, lodging, gear, transportation, and unexpected expenses. Build a contingency fund – many successful hikers recommend having several thousand dollars set aside for emergencies. If you don’t end up spending this money on the hike, you’ll have a nice cushion to help ease your transition back into society afterward.

Time Management

Budget a realistic amount of time based on your own anticipated speed, including buffer days for rest, recovery, and unforeseen delays. Avoid setting overly aggressive schedules that could lead to burnout or pressure to hike through injuries. 

Most people take five or six months to thru-hike the AT, but you know your body and your capabilities better than anyone. Getting some backpacking experience before starting the AT will help you to realistically gauge how long it might take you to complete the whole trail. If in doubt, err on the slower side.

Mental Fortitude

This hike is as much a mental challenge as a physical one. Set realistic expectations, celebrate small victories, and cultivate resilience for the inevitable tough days.

Our fearless leader Zach’s book on mental resilience for thru-hikers, Appalachian Trials, is a great read for anyone dreaming of the AT. Some of Zach’s recommended strategies include avoiding quitting on a bad day and keeping a list of “whys,” i.e., why you want to thru-hike.

Remember in the injury section when I said more than half of the hikers in our survey got injured during their thru? 40% of those injured hikers said they didn’t stop and didn’t slow down, just hiked right through the pain. Others slowed down but kept going, and some were forced to take a break to recover but got back on trail as soon as possible.

Every injury is different, of course, but these numbers speak to the grit and determination necessary to successfully thru-hike.

Completing the Appalachian Trail is a massive achievement, and the challenges are an inherent part of the journey. While factors like severe weather, unavoidable illness, and issues back home can derail even the best-laid plans, the data clearly shows that physical, financial, logistical, and mental preparation can significantly improve an aspiring thru-hiker’s odds of reaching the terminus.

Featured image: Photo via Katie Jackson. Graphic design by Chris Helm.